This calculator is a decision aid for agencies and revenue operators evaluating a partner-lead buying program. It makes the assumptions visible so a promising top-line revenue number cannot hide weak acceptance, opportunity, close, or margin economics.
How the calculator works
Every output comes from the seven values you enter. Rates are applied sequentially: purchased leads become accepted leads, accepted leads become opportunities, and opportunities become projected wins. First-year deal value converts those wins into gross revenue; gross margin converts revenue into estimated gross profit.
Monthly lead spend = purchased leads × price per lead
Projected wins = purchased leads × (acceptance rate ÷ 100) × (opportunity rate ÷ 100) × (close rate ÷ 100)
Gross profit = projected wins × average first-year deal value × (gross margin ÷ 100)
ROI after lead spend = (gross profit − lead spend) ÷ lead spend × 100
Break-even cost per lead = (acceptance rate ÷ 100) × (opportunity rate ÷ 100) × (close rate ÷ 100) × deal value × (gross margin ÷ 100)
Results can include fractional leads and deals because this is an expected-value model across a cohort, not a prediction that a fraction of a deal will close.
Read break-even cost before ROI
The break-even cost per purchased lead is the cleanest first check. It estimates how much gross profit one purchased lead produces under your current assumptions before acquisition cost. A quoted lead price above that amount starts the model below break-even. A lower price creates modeled room for contribution, but it does not account for every operating cost.
ROI is useful only when its boundary is clear. Here it compares modeled gross profit with partner lead spend. It excludes sales labor, software, financing, tax, refunds, collection risk, onboarding, service delivery overhead not represented by gross margin, and the time value of cash.
Use cohort evidence, not optimistic averages
Match every input to the same cohort and time window. Do not combine an acceptance rate from one source, an opportunity rate from another segment, and a close rate from your strongest campaign. If evidence is thin, label the assumption and run a downside case.
If a marketplace quality score is part of the buying workflow, audit its evidence, coverage, and outcome boundary with the lead quality score methodology before using score-defined segments as model inputs.
- Use the purchased lead count, not every listing viewed.
- Define acceptance before purchase with a documented review window.
- Count an opportunity only when it meets the same qualification rule used in your CRM.
- Use collected or reliably contracted first-year value, not an uncapped lifetime-value claim.
- Apply gross margin consistently and revisit it when delivery mix changes.
- Compare the model with observed outcomes after a full sales-cycle window.
What this model does not promise
The output is not a revenue forecast, valuation, purchase recommendation, or performance guarantee. Partner leads vary by evidence coverage, fit, freshness, price, timing, buyer process, and market conditions. Small cohorts can move sharply after one accepted lead or one won deal.
Review the buyer acceptance criteria checklist before purchasing and use the marketplace attribution ladder to connect the purchase record with contact, meeting, opportunity, and commercial outcomes. If CRM identity is uncertain, establish deduplication rules before you treat a lead as incremental.
Frequently asked questions
Should I enter revenue or gross profit per deal?
Enter first-year deal value as revenue and use the gross-margin field to estimate gross profit. Keeping the two separate makes margin assumptions reviewable.
Why is the result fractional?
The model multiplies rates across a monthly cohort, so expected opportunities and wins can be fractional. Treat them as a planning average across repeated cohorts, not literal partial deals.
What should I do when I have no historical conversion rate?
Do not borrow a marketplace-wide number and present it as evidence. Start with a deliberately conservative assumption, label it, run a range, and replace it with your own cohort data as it becomes available.
Keep the model reviewable
Download the audited model CSV before changing assumptions, record the cohort dates and definitions beside it, and compare the model with actual results after the relevant sales cycle. The export contains exact accepted inputs and unrounded browser calculation values plus units, explicit formulas, model caveats, and review checks. The printable workbook methodology provides a self-contained offline definition sheet, cohort audit, and scenario review.
Methodology: Partner Connector’s transparent cohort formulas above. This tool sends only the event names asset_start, asset_complete, and primary_cta with the asset identifier and CTA location when applicable; it does not send calculator answers.